Global light vehicle sales snapshot
- The IMF’s latest forecast for global GDP in 2023 is unchanged (from July status) at 3.0%, including higher forecasts for US and Japan, lower for China.
- Over the first nine months of 2023, all the Top-15 light vehicle markets are ahead of their year-ago figures, with increases ranging from 2.4% in China to 65% in Turkey.
- Eleven of the Top-15 markets have seen double-digit increases over the first nine months.
- The full-year forecast has been raised by just under 0.1pts from prior status, reflecting the more positive macro-economic outlook and robust year-to-date data. All the major regions are expected to see increased demand in 2023, but overall demand is expected to remain below its pre-pandemic level.
Global light vehicle sales update
| Light Vehicle sales (000s) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023(f) | Change -v- prior year | Change -v- prior status (pts) | Notes |
| China | 24,605.1 | 24,042.8 | 25,196.9 | 4.8% | -0.3 | 2023 GDP forecast lowered. |
| N. America (US & Canada) | 16,720.1 | 15,380.4 | 16,780.0 | 9.1% | 0.4 | Economic outlook improved, but some supply disruption from strikes. |
| EU+EFTA+UK | 13,798.0 | 12,937.0 | 14,049.6 | 8.6% | 0.5 | EU consumer confidence fell for second successive month in September, but car sales have risen for 14 months in row. |
| S. America | 4,652.0 | 4,833.0 | 5,142.3 | 6.4% | 0.3 | Brazil consumer confidence highest since February 2014. New automotive stimulus announced in May. Mexico consumer confidence four-year high. |
| India | 3,357.3 | 3,929.3 | 4,200.4 | 6.9% | 0.2 | Dealers Association has shifted stance from ‘cautiously optimistic’ to ‘optimistic’. Strong festive season anticipated. |
| Japan | 4,361.5 | 4,121.4 | 4,488.2 | 8.9% | 0.3 | September consumer confidence continued decline from July’s 19-month high, but not yet reflected in LV demand. |
| Asean | 2,455.0 | 2,794.0 | 2,984.0 | 6.8% | -0.2 | Thai and Indonesian demand weaker in first nine months. |
| Middle East | 2,408.4 | 2,451.8 | 2,640.6 | 7.7% | 0.1 | Demand in Turkey (regional leader) growing strongly despite economic background. |
| RoW | 7,827.5 | 7,025.7 | 7,355.9 | 4.7% | 0.1 | |
| Total | 80,185.0 | 77,515.4 | 82,837.9 | 6.9% | 0.1 | |
| Change | -3.3% | 6.9% |
LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
LV Sales, Next-10 markets: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
LV Sales, Next-10 markets: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (%)
Change in LV Sales, Top-15 markets: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (%)
Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (000 units)
Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (000 units)
