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Global light vehicle sales forecast – October 2023 edition

Automotive World's monthly global light vehicle sales forecast provides a snapshot of past and future sales volumes broken down by region

Global light vehicle sales snapshot

  • The IMF’s latest forecast for global GDP in 2023 is unchanged (from July status) at 3.0%, including higher forecasts for US and Japan, lower for China.
  • Over the first nine months of 2023, all the Top-15 light vehicle markets are ahead of their year-ago figures, with increases ranging from 2.4% in China to 65% in Turkey.
  • Eleven of the Top-15 markets have seen double-digit increases over the first nine months.
  • The full-year forecast has been raised by just under 0.1pts from prior status, reflecting the more positive macro-economic outlook and robust year-to-date data. All the major regions are expected to see increased demand in 2023, but overall demand is expected to remain below its pre-pandemic level.

Global light vehicle sales update

Light Vehicle sales (000s)202120222023(f)Change -v- prior yearChange -v- prior status (pts)Notes
China24,605.124,042.825,196.94.8%-0.32023 GDP forecast lowered.
N. America (US & Canada)16,720.115,380.416,780.09.1%0.4Economic outlook improved, but some supply disruption from strikes.
EU+EFTA+UK13,798.012,937.014,049.68.6%0.5EU consumer confidence fell for second successive month in September, but car sales have risen for 14 months in row.
S. America4,652.04,833.05,142.36.4%0.3Brazil consumer confidence highest since February 2014. New automotive stimulus announced in May. Mexico consumer confidence four-year high.
India3,357.33,929.34,200.46.9%0.2Dealers Association has shifted stance from ‘cautiously optimistic’ to ‘optimistic’. Strong festive season anticipated.
Japan4,361.54,121.44,488.28.9%0.3September consumer confidence continued decline from July’s 19-month high, but not yet reflected in LV demand.
Asean2,455.02,794.02,984.06.8%-0.2Thai and Indonesian demand weaker in first nine months.
Middle East2,408.42,451.82,640.67.7%0.1Demand in Turkey (regional leader) growing strongly despite economic background.
Change -3.3%6.9%

LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

LV Sales, Next-10 markets: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

LV Sales, Next-10 markets: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (%)

Change in LV Sales, Top-15 markets: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (%)

Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (000 units)

Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (000 units)

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